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In the maritime domain, the Bayesian Network has been widely used for risk prediction by modeling the causal relationship of shipping accidents where a lot of human and organizational factors are involved.Most of the models depend on experts’ elicitation for model construction and parameterization.I don’t know you and what your personal issues are, but everyone’s got baggage and I’d like to share some emotional landmines you might have to deal with if you start doing BJJ. My best was not nearly as good as that 21 year old athlete – I was an overweight 33 year old woman!But anyone who looked at me KNEW I was trying my best.I’m not being unkind – white belts by definition suck.They also won’t want to partner with you because they don’t know how awesome you are and that you tell the best jokes and that you try hard – because they don’t know you.Don’t just measure your progress by how awesome (or sucky) your jiu jitsu is or isn’t. Even if I had a HORRIBLE time, I couldn’t do anything, I gassed out and had to sit out, and that blue belt just break-danced on my body, I still won because I’d gone to class. No one says “Oh man, I’m glad I didn’t do that thing I really wanted to do, because then no one laughed at me.” Instead, they say “Oh man I wish I had done it. Simply accept – okay – some people will laugh, and if they do, I’ll know they’re a shitty person. I found a wonderful community, a new passion, thoughtful training partners, new friends, and a new relationship with my body.Measure things like – your negative achievements, if movement is easier, if you were able to complete the warmup, or do a forward roll finally. You should create wins for yourself so that you’re not overwhelmed by how bad your jiu jitsu is. It’s SO STUPID that I didn’t do it out of fear people would laugh.” When you start pandering to your fears, they will overrun your life. Somebody should tell us…right at the start of our lives…that we are dying. When I started jiu jitsu my attitude was: My personal reality now is that I need a new attitude! Sometimes I’m the person who knows the most in class. Honestly, accepting that I DON’T suck is a lot harder for me than accepting that I DID suck.

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Jiu Jiu’s note: Were you fat or largely overweight when you started doing jiu jitsu, or any other sport for that matter? What challenges were rough for you, and what words of encouragement do you have for larger folks starting BJJ or other sports?I was overweight, sure, but in Seattle amongst the geek crowd, I was not that much of an outlier.In jiu jitsu class, however, I was the biggest woman, period.Teammates will respect you when you’ve demonstrated you’re sticking around, that you’re not going to quit when things get rough, that you’re trying to the best of your ability, and that you have a good attitude.In fact, some will respect you more than they respect the young, fit athlete – simply because you’re trying harder and have a bigger battle in front of you. My suggestion is to accept them as your reality and truth, then be pleasantly surprised if they are NOT your reality.